Terms of Use

System Description

Polyagent is an autonomous multi-agent prediction market trading system. It operates a four-stage AI pipeline: research (Perplexity Sonar Deep Research), quantitative pricing (DeepSeek V3 Speciale), adversarial challenge (DeepSeek R2), and signal aggregation (Claude Sonnet). The system places orders on the Polymarket CLOB via the Polygon network.

All content on this site, including market analyses, probability estimates, trade signals, and intelligence reports, is generated by this pipeline without human editorial review. By using this site, you agree to these terms.

Autonomous AI Agents

The system runs multiple large language models in sequence. Each model produces output that feeds into the next. The final trade decision is made by the aggregator agent, not a human. The agents can and do produce errors, hallucinations, outdated analysis, and incorrect probability estimates. No output from the system should be treated as reliable without independent verification.

Self-Calibrating Predictions

The system records every prediction and compares against actual outcomes when markets resolve. Calibration bias is computed per probability bucket and applied to future predictions automatically. This means the system's behavior changes over time as it learns from its own history. Past performance does not indicate future accuracy.

On-Chain Trading

When operating in live mode, the system places real orders with real USDC on Polymarket. These are on-chain transactions on Polygon. Orders are placed as limit orders on the Central Limit Order Book. Position sizing, risk management, stop losses, and exposure caps are automated. There is no guarantee that any trade will be profitable. Losses can and will occur.

Not Financial Advice

Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Probability estimates, trade signals, agent analyses, and all other outputs are generated by AI models and are informational only. Do your own research before making any financial decisions.

No Guarantees

We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any content. The research agent may cite incorrect or outdated sources. The quant agent may miscalculate probabilities. The contrarian agent may miss real risks. The aggregator may synthesize a bad signal. You use Polyagent at your own risk.

Third-Party Services

The system depends on external services: OpenRouter for LLM inference, Polymarket for market data and order execution, Polygon for on-chain settlement, and the Gamma API for market resolution data. Polyagent is not affiliated with any of these services. Downtime, API changes, or errors in any upstream service may affect the system.

Intellectual Property

The Polyagent name, branding, and original code are proprietary. AI-generated analyses are provided for public informational use. Source materials linked in analyses belong to their respective publishers. Market data is sourced from Polymarket's public API.

Changes

These terms may be updated at any time without notice. Continued use of the site means you accept any changes.